is it suppose to be a strong one?
that's from another forum. the guy says basically it could be a cat 2 or a cat 4, but the storm surge (because of the overall size of the storm... which is the biggest in years) will be like that of a cat 4.The latest satellite loops continue to perplex me with regard to storm structure. The storm continues to struggle with an asymmetric shape and cloud filled eye. It has repeatedly tried to form an eye that is west of the deepest convection and the eye's DVorak signature seems to wobble each time it gets lined up closet to the deep convection and it fills again with clouds and takes on a triangular or pentagonal shape. Very weird indeed. The water in the Gulf continues to pile up north and NW of this storm. If the bottom falls out in the last 24 hours and the system regains organization this could be a very serious situation as the cyclone is now much larger than Katrina was and the wind field in the NE and NW quadrants are so massive that the fetch is simply terrifying from a storm surge standpoint as the significant wave height piled on top of the surge will be catastrophic if you believe the GFDL model. The GFDL takes the storm to a top end Category 4 just before landfall.
On the other hand, several models are thinking CAT 1 or CAT 2 at landfall. I am trending toward the stronger solution but not sure I can go along with 131 knots (152mph sustained) that the GFDL is suggesting.
The fact of the matter though is that strong winds will arrive soon on the Texas Coast as will the waves and tides well ahead of the core could run 5-10 feet above normal and the surge at the core at landfall could exceed 18 feet or more depending on the location of actual landfall.
Regardless, this is a serious situation and I wish all in the path the best. As always you are welcome to call me on my cell if things get crazy and you just need someone with an "eye in the sky" who is able to explain the situation to you as power starts to fail and you effectively go "blind" to the situation.