Ever have one of those "I told you so" moments?

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theacoustician

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Sep 30, 2004
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I got one reading this article :
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2006/02/06/8367959/index.htm?cnn=yes

I was part of a group project that produced a paper in college for my environmental engineering class that basically said everything that this article says. We basically showed that by converting farm crops (such as changing tobacco fields into sweetgrass or bamboo), we could produce enough cellulosic ethanol without impacting our food production capacity to completely replace gasoline. The cost of retrofitting a car to burn E85 would be less than $200 by 2007 (our prediction) and the design changes necessitated by that would also improve longevity and reliability in engines. Pipelines and current distribution channels could be converted to pump ethanol in a little less than 2 years with ROI occuring in about 3 years after completion. We even envisioned allowing the import of cheap ethanol from the Carribean (sugar cane) to help initially boost the supply and spur demand because of the low fuel costs. Within 2 years of adoption, we would exceed the standards set by the Kyoto treaty. The safety factor of running a ethanol distillery is several times higher than running a oil refinery. The environmental impact of 1 oil refinery is about equal to that of 300 ethanol distilleries. Basically, we could save the earth, employ every man and woman in the entire Midwest, end farm subsidies, provide cheaper fuel to the entire country, and supercharge the economy.


We were told that it was a nice study, but there was no demand to switch. Our prof. didn't see the feasibility of talking oil producers/car manufacturers into going along with such a plan. Reading stuff like this kinda makes me smile, but it also kinda makes me want to bang my head into the wall.

So, ever see something and go, "HAY! I TOLD YOU SO!"?
 
The Network Administrator at my lost job constantly told me how much more successful he was than I am. If we had a discussion about Finances, it ended with him saying he was more successful. If we talked about lifting weights, hand-writing, math, biology, nuclear physics, astrology, or women's purses, he somehow managed to justify that he was the better man in life. This guy was 33, had a MASTERS DEGREE in business, and was making $35k a year as a network admin. He also once told me I'd never make any farther in life than where I was at that job.

I have (virtually) no formal schooling past high school, I'm 26, and make more than he does. So I guess life has given me a reason to say "Ha, I told you so.", perhaps I'll have the chance to tell him in person some day.

The oil company thing: It will (literally) take an act of god to move away from the gasoline engine we use in our cars. There is too much money involved, too many powerful people, and too many corrupt Swedish people out there.
 
theacoustician said:
I got one reading this article :
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2006/02/06/8367959/index.htm?cnn=yes

I was part of a group project that produced a paper in college for my environmental engineering class that basically said everything that this article says. We basically showed that by converting farm crops (such as changing tobacco fields into sweetgrass or bamboo), we could produce enough cellulosic ethanol without impacting our food production capacity to completely replace gasoline. The cost of retrofitting a car to burn E85 would be less than $200 by 2007 (our prediction) and the design changes necessitated by that would also improve longevity and reliability in engines. Pipelines and current distribution channels could be converted to pump ethanol in a little less than 2 years with ROI occuring in about 3 years after completion. We even envisioned allowing the import of cheap ethanol from the Carribean (sugar cane) to help initially boost the supply and spur demand because of the low fuel costs. Within 2 years of adoption, we would exceed the standards set by the Kyoto treaty. The safety factor of running a ethanol distillery is several times higher than running a oil refinery. The environmental impact of 1 oil refinery is about equal to that of 300 ethanol distilleries. Basically, we could save the earth, employ every man and woman in the entire Midwest, end farm subsidies, provide cheaper fuel to the entire country, and supercharge the economy.


We were told that it was a nice study, but there was no demand to switch. Our prof. didn't see the feasibility of talking oil producers/car manufacturers into going along with such a plan. Reading stuff like this kinda makes me smile, but it also kinda makes me want to bang my head into the wall.
Click to expand...

I have a question. For those of us who haven't been to Chemistry class since high school, what is the end product of burning ethanol?

theacoustician said:
So, ever see something and go, "HAY! I TOLD YOU SO!"?
Click to expand...

Not really, but JJ now has 3 "I told ya so"'s on me. :(
 
So basically we just have to basically replace our dependency on gasoline with one on ethanol. Basically, I mean.
 
theacoustician said:
CO2 + H2O.
Click to expand...

So what about when I decide to kick off by running my car in the garage. CO2 would probably painfully sufficate me. Give me gasoline any day, nothing like a little carbonmonoxide poisioning to do the job.
 
Awesome article, by the way. I love reading and talking about stuff like this.

If I were the President I'd push an incentive program to establish an ethanol infrastructure nationwide and completely phase out current petroleum standards. It would be like the great interstate highway initiative of the 1930s-1960s. Phasing out our current oil and gas supply network in favor of ethanol would be a mindbogglingly massive undertaking, but once a reliable supply replacement is in place people will be far more likely to transition whether Big Oil wants them to or not. And Big Oil will fight this every inch of the way. A Fortune 5 company like ExxonMobil isn't exactly going to want to surrender its livelihood.
 
I would be willing to pay 500 or 1000 more on a car if I thought I was polluting less and especially if fuel costs could be lowered. If it was available I would seriously consider it.
 
Sarcasmo said:
Awesome article, by the way. I love reading and talking about stuff like this.

If I were the President I'd push an incentive program to establish an ethanol infrastructure nationwide and completely phase out current petroleum standards. It would be like the great interstate highway initiative of the 1930s-1960s. Phasing out our current oil and gas supply network in favor of ethanol would be a mindbogglingly massive undertaking, but once a reliable supply replacement is in place people will be far more likely to transition whether Big Oil wants them to or not. And Big Oil will fight this every inch of the way. A Fortune 5 company like ExxonMobil isn't exactly going to want to surrender its livelihood.
Click to expand...
Actually, Shell owns the biggest ethanol refinery in Brazil producing more than 4 billion barrels / year. I actually think that in the long run, the energy companies would get behind this because it would return to the days of "cheap fuel" and people would be more spend free and work the economy of scale while reaping the benefits of good PR and employing more US workers.
 
I still think the best solution is to nuke the whales and take their oil.

whales.JPG
 
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ERage said:
I would be willing to pay 500 or 1000 more on a car if I thought I was polluting less and especially if fuel costs could be lowered. If it was available I would seriously consider it.
Click to expand...
Actually, if you own a US made vehicle and it says FFV on it, you're already equipped to use E85. There are even plans out there to make your own ethanol distillery in your backyard using lawn clippings and veggie scraps. Wouldn't completely cover your fuel costs, but every 1 in 10 fillups could be covered by your home system.
 
KNYTE said:
I still think the best solution is to nuke the whales and take their oil.

whales.JPG
Click to expand...
i second this

although... would we have anything left of the whales after the nuking?

and by nuking, do you mean microwave em??? Do they make microwaves that big???
 
theacoustician said:
Actually, if you own a US made vehicle and it says FFV on it, you're already equipped to use E85. There are even plans out there to make your own ethanol distillery in your backyard using lawn clippings and veggie scraps. Wouldn't completely cover your fuel costs, but every 1 in 10 fillups could be covered by your home system.
Click to expand...

:lol:, people would start stealing their neighbor's lawn clippings.
 
theacoustician said:
Actually, if you own a US made vehicle and it says FFV on it, you're already equipped to use E85. There are even plans out there to make your own ethanol distillery in your backyard using lawn clippings and veggie scraps. Wouldn't completely cover your fuel costs, but every 1 in 10 fillups could be covered by your home system.
Click to expand...

Well, i've already got a moonshine still running, I suppose E cant be that much different. :D

junkyard.jpg
 
ERage said:
Well, i've already got a moonshine still running, I suppose E cant be that much different. :D

junkyard.jpg
Click to expand...
Don't start talking about producing E. All the Tampa people on this board will get hot and bothered.
 
theacoustician said:
Actually, if you own a US made vehicle and it says FFV on it, you're already equipped to use E85. There are even plans out there to make your own ethanol distillery in your backyard using lawn clippings and veggie scraps. Wouldn't completely cover your fuel costs, but every 1 in 10 fillups could be covered by your home system.
Click to expand...


What kind of fuel economy would you get from ethanol vs gasoline?
About the same?
 
We did our senior design project around building a plant that would convert market pulp to ethanol. Basically extract the sugars, ferment, and concentrate in distillation columns to 98% purity. There was not a single group that could turn a profit on a 20 year analysis, we were about 20MM in the hole. Professors came back and said they weren't suprised. Even back when they did it in the early 90's (a govt study I think) they were barely able to turn a profit, and that was with included tax breaks and what not. It was more to see how we set up the unit operations and how our financial analysis looked.

The best was the group that came in and said that their total operating capital was about the same $$ as the one filter press I had designed. The professors ripped them apart. "Did you check your numbers? Cause I know for a fact that there is no WAY you can even buy a fermentation setup for this much $$." There were some assholes in that group too, so it was nice to see them get burnt.
 
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